Context: Total Fertility Rate in India remains at 2.0; Bihar records highest count, Bengal lowest

Source: The Hindu

According to the Registrar-General of India’s 2021 Sample Registration System report, the nation’s total fertility rate—the average number of children born to women over the course of their lifetimes—remained at 2.0 in 2021, unchanged from 2020.

West Bengal and Delhi had the lowest TFR of 1.4, while Bihar reported the highest at 3.0. According to the research, the percentage of the population in the 0–14 age range decreased gradually from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. Over the same time period, the percentage of the economically engaged population aged 15 to 59 years rose from 53.4% to 66.2%.

For those aged 65 and over, the population has increased from 5.3% to 5.9%, and for those aged 60 and over, it has increased from 6% to 9%.

The state of Kerala had the largest percentage of people aged 60 and above, accounting for 14.4% of the total population.

According to the survey, the two states with the highest percentages of senior people are Tamil Nadu (12.9%) and Himachal Pradesh (12.3%).

In contrast, the lowest percentages of people aged 60 and over are found in Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7%), and Delhi (7.1%). Between 1990 and 2021, the average age of females at effective marriage grew from 19.3 to 22.5 years.

In addition to Delhi (1.4), West Bengal (1.4), Tamil Nadu (1.5), Andhra Pradesh (1.5), Jammu and Kashmir (1.5), Kerala (1.5), Maharashtra (1.5), Punjab (1.5), Himachal Pradesh (1.6), Telangana (1.6), Karnataka (1.6), Odisha (1.8), Uttarakhand (1.8), Gujarat (2.0), Haryana (2.0), and Assam (2.1), it is noteworthy that the replacement level TFR, or 2.1, has been reached at the national level.

Model Question:

“India has reached below-replacement level of Total Fertility Rate (TFR), but demographic challenges still persist.” Discuss the implications of declining TFR and suggest policy measures to manage the emerging population structure.

Model Answer:

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. As per NFHS-5 (2019–21), India’s TFR stands at 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1. This demographic transition indicates progress in population stabilization but also brings forth a new set of socio-economic challenges.

Implications of Declining TFR:

1. Demographic Dividend at Risk: The working-age population may shrink in the long run, limiting the potential economic boost of a demographic dividend.
2. Ageing Population: Increase in the proportion of elderly (60+ years), putting pressure on pensions, healthcare, and social security systems.
3. Labour Shortage: Reduced availability of young labor could impact industrial productivity and growth, especially in labor-intensive sectors.
4. Skewed Dependency Ratio: Higher old-age dependency could slow economic growth and require reallocation of public spending.
5. Regional Imbalances: States like Bihar and UP still have high TFRs, while southern and western states are experiencing rapid fertility decline, leading to political and economic disparities.
6. Migration Pressures: Fertility decline in developed regions may cause increased internal migration from high-fertility areas, leading to urban stress.

Policy Measures to Address Emerging Challenges:

1. Strengthen Elderly Care Infrastructure: Expand Ayushman Bharat and old-age pensions, promote geriatric healthcare and insurance coverage.
2. Promote Healthy and Active Ageing: Encourage older adults to remain in the workforce through flexible retirement and skill upgradation.
3. Boost Female Workforce Participation: Invest in education, skill development, and workplace safety for women to compensate for a declining workforce.
4. Manage Regional Disparities: Targeted family planning and awareness in high-fertility states; equitable fiscal and development incentives.
5. Urban Planning and Migration Management: Improve infrastructure in receiving areas, and promote balanced regional development to reduce push factors.
6. Encourage Pronatalist Policies (where needed): For states facing below-replacement fertility, incentives like child tax benefits, parental leave, and childcare support can be considered.

India’s achievement in bringing down the TFR below replacement level reflects success in public health and family planning. However, this milestone demands a forward-looking population policy that is sensitive to the emerging demographic, economic, and social shifts. A balanced approach—addressing both low fertility and residual high fertility pockets—is essential for sustainable and inclusive development.