Context: How Climate Change is affecting India’s wheat production cycle

Source: The Hindu

This February was the warmest in India’s 124-year history. March is expected to see higher-than-normal temperatures and more days with heat waves than usual, according to the IMD’s previous warning. The time frame aligns with the start of India’s wheat harvest season, and the country’s second-most consumed crop, after rice, is seriously threatened by excessive heat.

The northwest regions of the Indo-Gangetic plains in India are the main locations for wheat cultivation. The states of Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh are among the primary producers. Typically sown from October to December, wheat requires a cooler growing season. During the rabi crop season, which runs from February to April, it is harvested.

For the 2025–2026 rabi marketing season, the Indian government set a goal of 30 million tons of wheat purchase. The amount of wheat purchased by the government in 2024–2025 was 26.6 million tons.

India banned the export of wheat in May 2022. This came soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, a significant wheat-producing nation, disrupting the staple grain’s international supply and driving up prices worldwide.

Heat stress brought on by rising global warming “triggers significant changes in the biological and development process of wheat, leading to a reduction in grain production and grain quality.” It is well known that heat stress interferes with wheat growth and development by changing “physio-bio-chemical processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, oxidative damage, activity of stress-induced hormones, proteins, and anti-oxidative enzymes, water and nutrient relations, and yield-forming attributes upon exposure to temperature above the optimum range.”

The rate of warming in the Indian Ocean is increasing. From the present average of 20 days per year to 220-250 days per year, the frequency of marine heat waves is predicted to increase tenfold. The majority of India’s agriculture depends on the monsoon, which will change as a result of the warming Indian Ocean.

The grain-filling time is shortened by high temperatures because they produce early flowering and faster ripening. This lowers the amount of wheat produced overall by producing lighter grains with less starch buildup. Wheat that is exposed to extreme heat develops a larger protein content but less starch, which hardens the grain and degrades its milling quality. Reduced grain weight and quality problems may result in lower market pricing for farmers.

Farmers that have low crop yields are also more likely to get desperate and use excessive amounts of fungicides, fertilizers, and other chemicals.

In order to reduce heat stress on wheat crops, officials employ adaptation and mitigation techniques that center on food security. To safeguard wheat crops from increasing heat stress, policymakers must adopt a multifaceted strategy that combines scientific research, funding, technological advancements, and farmer education. This also entails modifying the dates of sowing and encouraging wheat cultivators that can withstand high temperatures.

Model Question:

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural productivity and crop production in India. Discuss the major impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture and suggest measures to mitigate these impacts. (250 words)

Model Answer:

India’s agriculture is highly climate-sensitive due to its dependence on the monsoon and limited use of advanced irrigation systems. Climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, threatens food security, farmer livelihoods, and rural economies.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

1. Reduced Crop Yields: Higher temperatures reduce yields of wheat, rice, and maize. Heat stress accelerates crop maturation, lowering grain quality.
2. Water Scarcity and Droughts: Frequent droughts reduce soil moisture and groundwater levels. Rainfed agriculture (60% of Indian farmland) is most vulnerable.
3. Increased Pest and Disease Incidence: Warmer temperatures favor the spread of pests like locusts and crop diseases.
4. Soil Degradation: Heavy rainfall and floods lead to soil erosion and nutrient loss.
5. Livelihood and Food Security Challenges: Smallholder farmers face income losses. Food price volatility increases, impacting the poor.

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

1. Climate-Resilient Crops: Promote drought-tolerant, flood-resistant, and heat-resilient crop varieties.
2. Efficient Water Management: Expand micro-irrigation (drip and sprinkler systems) and rainwater harvesting.
3. Agroforestry and Soil Management: Encourage organic farming, crop rotation, and use of bio-fertilizers.
4. Weather Advisory Systems: Develop early warning systems and provide real-time weather data to farmers.
5. Diversified Farming: Promote livestock, horticulture, and aquaculture to reduce climate risks.
6. Policy Support: Implement crop insurance schemes like PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana). Encourage carbon credit markets for sustainable farming.

To ensure climate-resilient agriculture, India must integrate scientific innovations, sustainable farming practices, and farmer-centric policies. Strengthening global and regional cooperation in climate adaptation will safeguard food security and enhance rural livelihoods.